VIETNAM ANIMAL FEED MARKET ANALYSIS (JULY 29, 2026): ABUNDANT IMPORT SUPPLY VS. LOCAL BYPRODUCT ADJUSTMENTS

1. Imported Corn: Nearby Terms Inch Up, August Supply Projected to Be Abundant

Price Movement

• Cai Lan & Vung Tau Ports: Asking prices for South American and South African corn for spot delivery (July 2026) and long-term deferred delivery (February 2027) gained +50 VND/kg, reaching 7,200 – 7,250 VND/kg (July) and 7,600 – 7,650 VND/kg (February 2027) respectively. Mid-term positions (August–December 2026) held flat at 7,250 – 7,550 VND/kg.
• Son La Domestic Corn: Local dried corn delivered to northern port warehouses held steady at 7,000 VND/kg, maintaining a discount of 200–250 VND/kg compared to imported port stock.

Supply Outlook & Vessel Arrivals (August–September)

• Import Volume: Total corn imports arriving in Vietnam during August 2026 are estimated at 1.32 million tons (a slight drop from 1.45 million tons in July, but remaining at a high level).
• Vessel Traffic: Ports in Northern and Southern Vietnam are set to receive bulk shipments from Argentina (NEFELI, TAI STRIDE, TOMINI UNITY), the US (LOWLAND IYO, VSC POSEIDON, PAN PEGASUS), and South Africa (GEMINI). The first half of September is expected to bring an additional 614,000 tons, marking the return of Brazilian corn vessels (NBA MAGRITTE, GOLDEN FELLOW, STAR EARENDEL).
• Re-export Activity: Demand for re-exporting corn from Southern ports to the Philippines and Cambodia remained active, totaling over 28,000 tons during July 18–25.

2. Soybean Meal: Mostly Flat; January 2027 Term Inches Up

Price Movement

• South American soybean meal prices across major ports remained largely unchanged compared to the previous trading session. Asking prices for August 2026 delivery at Cai Lan and Vung Tau held firm at 11,350 VND/kg, while September–November 2026 terms ranged between 11,400 – 11,450 VND/kg.
• Deferred Delivery Highlight: Long-term January 2027 positions gained +50 VND/kg, reaching 11,550 – 11,650 VND/kg. Containerized US soybean meal at Hai Phong port (July 2026) stood firm at 11,300 VND/kg.

Supply Forecast

• August 2026: Soybean meal imports are projected to surge by 25% compared to July, reaching approximately 442,000 tons, dominated by Argentine origin bulk vessels (STAR LAURA, PROTEAS, SALLY, UNIVERSAL PIONEER) and one US bulk ship.
• September 2026: The first half of September is expected to add nearly 294,000 tons (including PAN SKY carrying 50,000 tons of US soybean meal).
• Re-exports: Re-export shipments to Cambodia and the Philippines reached over 10,000 tons during July 18–25.

3. Mekong Delta Rice & Byproducts: Dry Rice Bran Drops Broadly

Rice Bran Pressured Down by -100 VND/kg

• Contrary to the steady prices in raw paddy and rice, dry rice bran prices across key Mekong Delta hubs (Sa Dec, Cai Be, An Giang, Can Tho, Long An) dropped broadly by -100 VND/kg down to 7,800 – 7,900 VND/kg.
• Drivers: Inflows of cheaper imported Cambodian rice bran (IR504, OM380, CL555 milling byproducts, glutinous bran) combined with supply releases from state-owned warehouses exerted downward pressure on high-quality local bran prices.

Raw Rice and Paddy Hold Firm

• Prices for IR 504 brown rice (9,700 VND/kg), Grade 1 broken rice (8,500 VND/kg), Grade 2 broken rice (8,400 VND/kg), and IR 504 wet paddy (6,400 VND/kg) remained completely flat.
• Although Summer-Autumn harvest progress exceeded 40% of the planted area, lower overall yields compared to last year and an extended harvesting period prevented steep price drops in this segment.

4. Other Byproducts & Foreign Exchange Rates

• Palm Kernel Meal: Asking prices for Indonesian/Malaysian high-fat palm kernel meal in Hai Phong rose slightly by +50 VND/kg to 5.200 VND/kg (CFR Long An/Hai Phong quoted at 182–188 USD/ton). Import volume during July 18–25 reached 18,800 tons.
• Feed Wheat & DDGS: Black Sea feed wheat at Cai Lan (7,500 VND/kg) and US DDGS at Cat Lai (7,500 – 7,600 VND/kg) remained flat.
• Financial Indicators (Vietcombank - July 29):
• USD/VND: 26,530 VND/USD (+5 VND).
• CNY/VND: 3,952 VND/CNY (-3 VND).
• Yunnan Corn Reference (China): 2,400 CNY/ton (~9,192 VND/kg equivalent).

5. Market Insights & Outlook

1. Short-Term (1–2 Weeks): Imported corn and soybean meal prices in Vietnam are unlikely to see aggressive bullish rallies due to substantial vessel arrivals lined up for August. The dominant trend will remain horizontal consolidation within a narrow range ($\pm 50$ VND/kg).
2. Local Byproducts: The Mekong Delta rice bran market is expected to trade cautiously. While feed mill demand remains healthy, price pressure from cheaper Cambodian imports will continue to cap significant upward movement for local rice byproducts in the near term.